The Projection Bias: Are You Overestimating Your Future Self and How to Fix It?
Have you ever gone grocery shopping when you’re hungry and ended up buying way more food than you actually need? Or perhaps when you’re feeling energetic, you overcommit to future tasks, thinking you’ll have the same energy later? This is a common mental trap called projection bias. It happens when we assume that our future feelings, desires, or abilities will be the same as they are in the present. But as we all know, feelings change — hunger fades, energy dips, and moods shift. So why do we keep making decisions based on how we feel right now? In this article, we discuss more about how the projection bias tricks us into overestimating our future self. And, more importantly, how you can correct this bias to make better decisions. Let’s explore how a little awareness today can save you from regrets tomorrow!
The Projection Bias Explained
Projection bias is a cognitive bias that causes us to assume that our future feelings, preferences, and abilities will mirror how we feel in the present. In simpler terms, we project our current state of mind onto our future selves, leading us to make flawed decisions. Whether it’s buying too much food when hungry or scheduling too much work when we feel energized, this bias skews our judgment and causes us to overestimate our future capabilities or needs.
The term “projection bias” was prominently developed within the field of behavioral economics, primarily by economists David Laibson and George Loewenstein. Their work in the late 20th and early 21st centuries explored how individuals’ current preferences and states influence their future decisions, often leading to systematic errors in judgment and planning. Through the various studies, they highlighted how projection bias affects everything from grocery shopping to long-term financial planning and health behaviors.
Why Do We Fall for Projection Bias? Psychology behind
The reason projection bias occurs is that we struggle to imagine how much our mental and physical states will change over time. Our present emotions and physical sensations are powerful and immediate, making it hard to picture a different future state. Humans are naturally anchored in the present. Psychologically, it is easier for us to imagine the future as a continuation of the present rather than as a different state. This is called “presentism”, where our current state of mind clouds our ability to accurately forecast future preferences or feelings. For example, if you’re hungry now, it’s hard to imagine not being hungry soon, so you overcompensate by buying too much food. Similarly, when you’re in a good mood or full of energy, you assume this will last, causing you to make overly optimistic decisions.
The empathy gap is also a psychological concept behind this bias. The gap describes our limited ability to understand how different emotional or physical states will influence our future decisions. When we’re in a particular state (e.g., tired, hungry, stressed), we underestimate how much being in a different state (e.g., well-rested, full, relaxed) will change our perspective.
How to Fix Projection Bias
Practice Self-Distancing to Gain Perspective
Another way to mitigate projection bias is by practicing self-distancing, a technique where you mentally detach yourself from your current situation to make more objective decisions. This involves imagining how you might feel in the future or viewing your situation from a third-person perspective. For example, if you’re considering taking on extra work when you’re feeling energetic, try to visualize how you might feel when you’re under stress later. By stepping back and viewing your situation from a more distant perspective, you reduce the likelihood of overcommitting or making decisions based solely on your present state.
Use “If-Then” Planning to Account for Future Variability
“If-Then” planning is a powerful tool that helps prepare for future scenarios where projection bias might arise. By planning for variability in your future state, you can create contingencies that align with different outcomes. For instance, if you’re studying for an exam, instead of assuming that your current focus will persist, plan for fatigue. An example of an “if-then” plan might be: “If I feel tired after two hours of studying, then I’ll take a 15-minute break.” This type of planning recognizes that your future self won’t always match your current feelings, allowing you to adjust your actions accordingly.
Delay Decisions to Allow for Emotional Cooling
One of the simplest but most effective ways to combat projection bias is by delaying decisions until you’re in a different emotional or physical state. When you’re in a heightened state your judgment can be clouded. For instance, if you’re considering buying expensive tickets to an event because you’re feeling particularly enthusiastic at the moment, give yourself a day or two to cool off and reconsider. This waiting period allows your emotions to stabilize. Making it easier to assess whether your decision aligns with your long-term needs rather than your current state of mind.
Final Takeaway
Projection bias is a common cognitive trap that affects our decision-making by leading us to overestimate the stability of our current preferences and emotions in predicting future outcomes. This bias is a subtle but powerful force that influences our decisions more than we realize. The best way to avoid projection bias is to be aware of it. By understanding this bias and taking proactive steps to manage it, we can make better decisions that aligns with our true capacities. Remember, our future selves are likely to be different from who we are today, and acknowledging this can lead to better planning and more realistic expectations. So next time you’re about to make a decision, pause and ask yourself: “Am I overestimating my future self?”
Further insights, Read “Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions” by Dan Ariely https://amzn.to/3Y6R8Ma
Read also : Hanlon’s Razor: Why Stupidity, Not Malice, Is Often to Blame https://thebrightdelights.com/hanlons-razor-why-stupidity-not-malice-is-often-to-blame/